Forecasting export and import of herbs and herbal products in Malaysia

• Main Authors: Merous, Noor Hazmira, Asfaria, Noor Azian
• Format: Conference or Workshop Item
• Language: English
• Published: 2017
• Subjects: HD28 Management. Industrial Management
• Online Access: http://repo.uum.edu.my/23873/1/CBMM%202017%201472%201477.pdf; http://repo.uum.edu.my/23873/

Herbal industry in Malaysia has been identified as a potential sector through new key economic areas (NKEA) in 2011 during Tenth Malaysian Plan (RMK-10).The export and import of herbs and herbal products experienced an increasing trend nevertheless the production of herbs in Malaysia shows fluctuating trend.This situation indicated that the need to examine the future demand of herbs and herbal products to help the players of the industry in planning their business strategy. The export and import for herbs and herbal products will be forecasted to achieve the features of the future information.Most forecasting technique used in agricultural commodities such as palm oil, rubber, cocoa and logs were Input-output model, multiple regression model, ARIMA model and composite model.This study will applied ARIMA model since it is shows an acceptable, reliable and realistic forecasting result with a good performance.The projections will be made for five years since ARIMA show more accurate forecasts rather than a complex forecasting model for a two to five years projection.The data used are the export and import data on herbs and herbal product in Malaysia that is available from 2001 to 2016.The results will be diagnosed using statistical software.The result of the study is hoped to be useful for the players in the industry and for the policy implementation.