Modelling the effect of vaccination program and inter-state travel in the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia
A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capab...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
Springer
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.um.edu.my/38482/ |
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| Summary: | A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder-Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak. |
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