Distortionary agricultural trade policy and food security: a causal analysis

• Main Authors: Mohamed, Shaheera, Khalid, Haniza
• Format: Conference or Workshop Item
• Language: English
• Published: Pusat pengajian Ekonomi, Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) 2016
• Subjects: HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics; HF Commerce
• Online Access: http://irep.iium.edu.my/51486/1/51486_Distortionary_agricultural_trade_policy_and_food_security.pdf; http://irep.iium.edu.my/51486/; http://www.ukm.my/fep/perkem/index.html

In an increasingly globalised world, agricultural trade and food security inevitably goes hand in hand. On paper, the idea of free agricultural trade is appealing as it will lead to a larger access of quantity and variability of food to more people. In practice, many countries choose to protect their borders through distortionary agricultural trade policies in an attempt to keep domestic markets isolated from changes in international price. The food crisis of 2007-2008 led a to an increase in border protection for many countries, particularly in the agricultural sector. In the academic field, there is still a dispute on the impact that distortionary agricultural trade policies have on food security. Therefore, determining the causal relationship between distortionary agricultural trade policies and food security is an important element in establishing a foundation for academic discussion. This paper aims to analyse the causal impact that distortionary agricultural trade policies have on food security, utilising the generalised propensity score (GPS) method, a non-parametric matching technique with continuous treatment, to assess the effect that distortionary agricultural trade policies, proxied by the Nominal Rates of Assistance (NRA), has on the four dimensions of food security; food access, food availability, food utilisation and food stability. The data focuses on 24 developing countries in the Asian, African and Latin American region between the years of 1990 to 2010. The results of the research show that there is a degree of causal relationship between distortionary agricultural trade policies and the dimensions of food security. The results also found a positive relationship between distortionary agricultural trade policies and food security in developing countries. Dalam dunia yang semakin global, perdagangan pertanian dan jaminan bekalan makanan saling berkaitan. Secara idealnya, perdagangan pertanian bebas akan membawa kepada akses yang lebih besar dari segi kuantiti dan kepelbagaian makanan. Namun di dunia sebenar, banyak negara memilih untuk melindungi sempadan mereka melalui dasar-dasar perdagangan pertanian yang menyebabkan herotan pasaran dalam usaha untuk menjaga pasaran domestik daripada perubahan dalam harga antarabangsa. Krisis makanan 2007-2008 telah membawa kepada peningkatan dalam perlindungan sempadan bagi banyak negara, terutamanya dalam sektor pertanian. Dalam bidang akademik, masih ada pertikaian tentang kesan dasar-dasar perdagangan pertanian yang menyebabkan herotan pasaran ada terhadap jaminan bekalan makanan. Penentuan hubungan sebab akibat antara dasar perdagangan pertanian yang menyebabkan herotan pasaran dan jaminan bekalan makanan adalah elemen yang penting dalam membina asas untuk perbincangan akademik. Kertas kerja ini bertujuan untuk menggunakan kaedah ‘generalised propensity score’ (GPS) untuk menilai kesan dasar-dasar perdagangan pertanian yang menyebabkan herotan pasaran ada pada jaminan bekalan makanan, diproksikan oleh ‘nominal rates of assistance’ (NRA) dan empat dimensi jaminan bekalan makanan; akses, ketersediaan, penggunaan dan kestabilan. Data ini tertumpu kepada 24 negara membangun di rantau Asia, Afrika dan Latin Amerika antara tahun 1990 hingga 2010. Hasil kajian menunjukkan ada wujudnya hubungan sebab akibat antara dasar perdagangan pertanian menyebabkan herotan pasaran dan dimensi jaminan bekalan makanan. Keputusan kajian juga mendapati hubungan yang positif antara dasar perdagangan pertanian yang menyebabkan herotan pasaran dan jaminan bekalan makanan di negara-negara membangun.