A Sustainable System Dynamics Optimization Model for Rice Self-Sufficiency in Malaysia (S/O: 13248)

• Main Authors: Hawari, Nurul Nazihah, Zainal Abidin, Norhaslinda, Benjamin, Aida Mauziah, Applanaidu, Shri Dewi
• Format: Monograph
• Language: English
• Published: UUM 2020
• Subjects: HB Economic Theory
• Online Access: https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/31774/1/13248.pdf; https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/31774/

Malaysia is currently produces 70% of rice self-sufficiency level for local demand annually, with the remaining sourced out from several countries. Although Malaysia’s rice production and productivity increase yearly, the Malaysian rice yield per capita shows an annual decline as land area for rice is remained fairly constant. Various efforts have been implemented by Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) to ensure the sufficiency in food supply. However, will Malaysia managed to achieve the government’s target of rice self-sufficiency in meeting the local demand, and hence, ends rice imports by 2020? Thus, the objective of this research is to develop a sustainable system dynamics optimization model to quantify the rice self-sufficiency level in Malaysia. The existing approaches of econometric models in literature are hard to analyze the dynamic and the complexity of rice industry system which contain various interrelated factors due to the limitation of its static approach. System dynamics on the other hand is an approach or studying and managing complex feedback system, whereas, optimization is a mathematical method to select the best element from some set of available alternatives. These two approaches have been integrated in this research to determine best strategic policies for rice supply sustainability for the unique case in Malaysia. The output includes the dynamic relationships between production, demand and supply of the rice which determines the rice self-sufficiency level. Findings from this research shows that by 2020, the rice SSL in Malaysia is only 73% achievement from 100% target. This research is in line with the Malaysia’s Plan agenda of empowering the agricultural sector which finding from this research is significant in assisting MOA on designing policy for the better future prospect of rice industry in Malaysia