A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human
The negative impact of zoonosis has stimulated study into a prediction system that able to estimate the future number of zoonosis, especially in human being. Zoonosis refers to any infectious disease that is able to be transmitted from animals to humans. This empirical paper compares three univariat...
Saved in:
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
Published: |
2009
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=5439371 http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3682/ |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
my.utp.eprints.3682 |
---|---|
record_format |
eprints |
spelling |
my.utp.eprints.36822010-12-23T08:58:05Z A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human Permanasari, Adhistya Erna Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai RZ Other systems of medicine QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science HA Statistics QA76 Computer software The negative impact of zoonosis has stimulated study into a prediction system that able to estimate the future number of zoonosis, especially in human being. Zoonosis refers to any infectious disease that is able to be transmitted from animals to humans. This empirical paper compares three univariate methods for zoonosis forecasting up to one year. Regression analysis, decomposition, and Holt-Winter's were selected as the simple and quick techniques for this purpose. The methods were compared using a time series of monthly number for tuberculosis incidence in human. Different error measures were used to determine the best model among them. It was found that the Holt-Winter's method produced better prediction than the rest of the methods with MAPE was 6.301 and Theil U value was 0.037. 2009-11 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=5439371 Permanasari, Adhistya Erna and Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya and Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai (2009) A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human. In: Research and Development (SCOReD), 2009 IEEE Student Conference on, 16-18 Novmber 2009, UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3682/ |
institution |
Universiti Teknologi Petronas |
building |
UTP Resource Centre |
collection |
Institutional Repository |
continent |
Asia |
country |
Malaysia |
content_provider |
Universiti Teknologi Petronas |
content_source |
UTP Institutional Repository |
url_provider |
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/ |
topic |
RZ Other systems of medicine QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science HA Statistics QA76 Computer software |
spellingShingle |
RZ Other systems of medicine QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science HA Statistics QA76 Computer software Permanasari, Adhistya Erna Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
description |
The negative impact of zoonosis has stimulated study into a prediction system that able to estimate the future number of zoonosis, especially in human being. Zoonosis refers to any infectious disease that is able to be transmitted from animals to humans. This empirical paper compares three univariate methods for zoonosis forecasting up to one year. Regression analysis, decomposition, and Holt-Winter's were selected as the simple and quick techniques for this purpose. The methods were compared using a time series of monthly number for tuberculosis incidence in human. Different error measures were used to determine the best model among them. It was found that the Holt-Winter's method produced better prediction than the rest of the methods with MAPE was 6.301 and Theil U value was 0.037.
|
format |
Conference or Workshop Item |
author |
Permanasari, Adhistya Erna Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai |
author_facet |
Permanasari, Adhistya Erna Awang Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Dominic P, Dhanapal Durai |
author_sort |
Permanasari, Adhistya Erna |
title |
A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
title_short |
A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
title_full |
A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
title_fullStr |
A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
title_full_unstemmed |
A comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
title_sort |
comparative study of univariate forecasting methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence on human |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/mostRecentIssue.jsp?punumber=5439371 http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3682/ |
_version_ |
1738655285030944768 |
score |
13.159267 |