Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket Platforms in Malaysia
Abstract- The Jacket platform codes such as API LRFD and ISO 19902 are based on probabilistic design of component and joint reliability. They consider overall structural integrity, redundancy and multiple failure paths only indirectly by using structural integrity assessment methods. In this pap...
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my.utp.eprints.101142017-03-20T01:59:23Z Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket Platforms in Malaysia Kurian, V.J. Nizamani, Zafarullah Liew, M. S. TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering Abstract- The Jacket platform codes such as API LRFD and ISO 19902 are based on probabilistic design of component and joint reliability. They consider overall structural integrity, redundancy and multiple failure paths only indirectly by using structural integrity assessment methods. In this paper, probability of failure is determined as per design requirement of 100 year extreme conditions using Monte Carlo simulation. To get information on maximum strength, maximum wave height was increased till the reserve strength ratio reached 1, using SACS pushover analysis. Stokes’s 5th order theory and Morrison Equation were used for finding the environmental loads. Regression analysis was used for the load model using surface fit tool of Matlab. The wave which gave an RSR value of 1 is considered as the maximum wave, the jacket can withstand with the available resistance of material. This theory has already been applied on land based structures, such as proof loading used against existing structures to gauge the strength of structure. This new maximum wave height has been used to find the updated failure probability and compare it with failure probability of design wave. The study covers one platform, and recommendation is made whether the platform is suitable for the extension of life or not. This study can further lead to updating based on new information on material resistance of platforms. Keywords: Jacket platform; Probability of failure; Environmental loading; reserve strength ratio; Bayesian updating 2013-04 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf http://eprints.utp.edu.my/10114/1/1569687681.pdf Kurian, V.J. and Nizamani, Zafarullah and Liew, M. S. (2013) Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket Platforms in Malaysia. In: IEEE Business, Engineering & Industrial Applications Colloqium (2013) , 7-9 April 2013, Langkawi. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/10114/ |
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TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering Kurian, V.J. Nizamani, Zafarullah Liew, M. S. Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket Platforms in Malaysia |
description |
Abstract- The Jacket platform codes such as API LRFD and ISO
19902 are based on probabilistic design of component and joint
reliability. They consider overall structural integrity,
redundancy and multiple failure paths only indirectly by using
structural integrity assessment methods. In this paper,
probability of failure is determined as per design requirement of
100 year extreme conditions using Monte Carlo simulation. To
get information on maximum strength, maximum wave height
was increased till the reserve strength ratio reached 1, using
SACS pushover analysis. Stokes’s 5th order theory and
Morrison Equation were used for finding the environmental
loads. Regression analysis was used for the load model using
surface fit tool of Matlab. The wave which gave an RSR value of
1 is considered as the maximum wave, the jacket can withstand
with the available resistance of material. This theory has already
been applied on land based structures, such as proof loading used
against existing structures to gauge the strength of structure.
This new maximum wave height has been used to find the
updated failure probability and compare it with failure
probability of design wave. The study covers one platform, and
recommendation is made whether the platform is suitable for the
extension of life or not. This study can further lead to updating
based on new information on material resistance of platforms.
Keywords: Jacket platform; Probability of failure; Environmental
loading; reserve strength ratio; Bayesian updating |
format |
Conference or Workshop Item |
author |
Kurian, V.J. Nizamani, Zafarullah Liew, M. S. |
author_facet |
Kurian, V.J. Nizamani, Zafarullah Liew, M. S. |
author_sort |
Kurian, V.J. |
title |
Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket
Platforms in Malaysia |
title_short |
Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket
Platforms in Malaysia |
title_full |
Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket
Platforms in Malaysia |
title_fullStr |
Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket
Platforms in Malaysia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bayesian Updating for Probability of Failure of Jacket
Platforms in Malaysia |
title_sort |
bayesian updating for probability of failure of jacket
platforms in malaysia |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/10114/1/1569687681.pdf http://eprints.utp.edu.my/10114/ |
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1738655805290315776 |
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13.159267 |