Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq
Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water dema...
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Online Access: | http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/1/ShamsuddinShahid2021_ProjectionofAgriculturalWaterStressforClimateChange.pdf http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11121288 |
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my.utm.963382022-07-17T08:02:16Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/ Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq Salman, Saleem A. Shahid, Shamsuddin Sharafati, Ahmad Ahmed Salem, Golam Saleh Abu Bakar, Amyrhul Farooque, Aitazaz Ahsan Chung, Eun-Sung Ahmed, Yaseen Adnan Mikhail, Bryukhov Yaseen, Zaher Mundher TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to -34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (-29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (-1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq. MDPI 2021 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/1/ShamsuddinShahid2021_ProjectionofAgriculturalWaterStressforClimateChange.pdf Salman, Saleem A. and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Sharafati, Ahmad and Ahmed Salem, Golam Saleh and Abu Bakar, Amyrhul and Farooque, Aitazaz Ahsan and Chung, Eun-Sung and Ahmed, Yaseen Adnan and Mikhail, Bryukhov and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher (2021) Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq. Agriculture (Switzerland), 11 (12). p. 1288. ISSN 2077-0472 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11121288 |
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TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Salman, Saleem A. Shahid, Shamsuddin Sharafati, Ahmad Ahmed Salem, Golam Saleh Abu Bakar, Amyrhul Farooque, Aitazaz Ahsan Chung, Eun-Sung Ahmed, Yaseen Adnan Mikhail, Bryukhov Yaseen, Zaher Mundher Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
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Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to -34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (-29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (-1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq. |
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Article |
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Salman, Saleem A. Shahid, Shamsuddin Sharafati, Ahmad Ahmed Salem, Golam Saleh Abu Bakar, Amyrhul Farooque, Aitazaz Ahsan Chung, Eun-Sung Ahmed, Yaseen Adnan Mikhail, Bryukhov Yaseen, Zaher Mundher |
author_facet |
Salman, Saleem A. Shahid, Shamsuddin Sharafati, Ahmad Ahmed Salem, Golam Saleh Abu Bakar, Amyrhul Farooque, Aitazaz Ahsan Chung, Eun-Sung Ahmed, Yaseen Adnan Mikhail, Bryukhov Yaseen, Zaher Mundher |
author_sort |
Salman, Saleem A. |
title |
Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
title_short |
Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
title_full |
Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
title_fullStr |
Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: A regional case study of Iraq |
title_sort |
projection of agricultural water stress for climate change scenarios: a regional case study of iraq |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/1/ShamsuddinShahid2021_ProjectionofAgriculturalWaterStressforClimateChange.pdf http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/96338/ http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11121288 |
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13.18916 |