A simulation-based product diffusion forecasting method using geometric Brownian motion and spline interpolation

• Main Authors: Madadi, Najmeh, Ma'aram, Azanizawati, Kuan, Yew Wong
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cogent OA 2017
• Subjects: TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
• Online Access: http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/77558/1/NajmehMadadi2017_ASimulationBasedProductDiffusionForecastingMethod.pdf; http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/77558/; http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2017.1300992

This study addresses the problem of stochasticity in forecasting diffusion of a new product with scarce historical data. Demand uncertainties are calibrated using a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. The spline interpolation (SI) method and curve fitting process have been utilized to obtain pa...