Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6
The extreme temperature has become more frequent and intense due to global warming, particularly in dry regions, causing devastating impacts on humans and ecosystems. The transboundary Amu river basin (ARB) is the most vulnerable region in Central Asia (CA) to extreme weather linked to climate chang...
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my.utm.1041402024-01-17T01:29:47Z http://eprints.utm.my/104140/ Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 Salehie, Obaidullah Ismail, Tarmizi Hamed, Mohammed Magdy Shahid, Shamsuddin Muhammad, Mohd. Khairul Idlan TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) The extreme temperature has become more frequent and intense due to global warming, particularly in dry regions, causing devastating impacts on humans and ecosystems. The transboundary Amu river basin (ARB) is the most vulnerable region in Central Asia (CA) to extreme weather linked to climate change. This study aimed to project warm and cold extremes in ARB for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and two time-horizons, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099, using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) simulations of global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Results revealed that the basin’s west experiences more hot extremes and the east more cold extremes. Climate change would cause a significant increase in the annual mean of Tmax and Tmin. However, the increase in mean Tmin would be much higher (5.0ºC) than the mean Tmax (4.6ºC). It would cause an increase in the hot extremes and a decrease in the cold extremes in the basin. The higher increase in the hot extremes would be in the west, while the higher decrease in the cold extreme in the basin’s east. The number of days above 40℃ would increase from 45 to 60 days in the basin’s west and northwest compared to the historical period. The number of days below − 20℃ would decrease up to 45 days in the basin’s east. Overall, the decrease in cold extremes would be much faster than the increase in hot extremes. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH 2022-10 Article PeerReviewed Salehie, Obaidullah and Ismail, Tarmizi and Hamed, Mohammed Magdy and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Muhammad, Mohd. Khairul Idlan (2022) Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36 (10). pp. 3395-3416. ISSN 1436-3240 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02201-6 DOI:10.1007/s00477-022-02201-6 |
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TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Salehie, Obaidullah Ismail, Tarmizi Hamed, Mohammed Magdy Shahid, Shamsuddin Muhammad, Mohd. Khairul Idlan Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
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The extreme temperature has become more frequent and intense due to global warming, particularly in dry regions, causing devastating impacts on humans and ecosystems. The transboundary Amu river basin (ARB) is the most vulnerable region in Central Asia (CA) to extreme weather linked to climate change. This study aimed to project warm and cold extremes in ARB for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and two time-horizons, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099, using daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) simulations of global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase six (CMIP6). Results revealed that the basin’s west experiences more hot extremes and the east more cold extremes. Climate change would cause a significant increase in the annual mean of Tmax and Tmin. However, the increase in mean Tmin would be much higher (5.0ºC) than the mean Tmax (4.6ºC). It would cause an increase in the hot extremes and a decrease in the cold extremes in the basin. The higher increase in the hot extremes would be in the west, while the higher decrease in the cold extreme in the basin’s east. The number of days above 40℃ would increase from 45 to 60 days in the basin’s west and northwest compared to the historical period. The number of days below − 20℃ would decrease up to 45 days in the basin’s east. Overall, the decrease in cold extremes would be much faster than the increase in hot extremes. |
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Article |
author |
Salehie, Obaidullah Ismail, Tarmizi Hamed, Mohammed Magdy Shahid, Shamsuddin Muhammad, Mohd. Khairul Idlan |
author_facet |
Salehie, Obaidullah Ismail, Tarmizi Hamed, Mohammed Magdy Shahid, Shamsuddin Muhammad, Mohd. Khairul Idlan |
author_sort |
Salehie, Obaidullah |
title |
Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
title_short |
Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
title_full |
Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projection of hot and cold extremes in the Amu River Basin of Central Asia using GCMs CMIP6 |
title_sort |
projection of hot and cold extremes in the amu river basin of central asia using gcms cmip6 |
publisher |
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://eprints.utm.my/104140/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02201-6 |
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