Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map

Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Th...

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Main Author: Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
Format: Thesis
Language:English
Published: 2022
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Online Access:http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf
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spelling my.utm.1003512023-04-13T02:17:55Z http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/ Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera Q Science (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Thus, this research aimed to develop a simple and novel seismic risk model, specifically for Ranau, by combining two parameters; vulnerability and hazard through Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analysis. The model was developed from hybrid models previously used individually for disaster-related analysis. The hybrid models experimented with were the Frequency Ratio-Index of Entropy (FR-IoE), (FR-IoE) with Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), (FR-IoE) with Logistic Regression (LR) and (FR-IoE) with Naïve Bayes (NB). The seismic vulnerability results computed from these hybrid models were validated using the areas under the curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC). It was found that the NB model showed the lowest reliability with the AUC values of 0.640 and 0.741 for its success rate and prediction rate, respectively. The AUC values for other models' success rates are 0.853, 0.856, and 0.869 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP, and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively, while their prediction rates are 0.863, 0.906, and 0.844 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively. A seismic hazard analysis was performed to complete the seismic risk model computation. The determination of seismic hazard was done by evaluating the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which was derived from Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). From the PGA computation, a non-linear regression model with an accuracy of R2 = 0.997 was obtained from constraint Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE, which was the best-fitted model compared to the other 5 GMPEs tested. Finally, the novel fitted GMPE for Ranau using the Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE were integrated with the seismic vulnerability obtained from the hybrid (FR-IoE) AHP model to derive the seismic risk information for Ranau, Sabah in the form of a seismic risk map. In the long run, the computed seismic risk map obtained from these findings can be implemented for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes and is useful the future earthquake disaster. 2022 Thesis NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera (2022) Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map. PhD thesis, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology. http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:150998
institution Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
building UTM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
content_source UTM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utm.my/
language English
topic Q Science (General)
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
spellingShingle Q Science (General)
TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
description Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Thus, this research aimed to develop a simple and novel seismic risk model, specifically for Ranau, by combining two parameters; vulnerability and hazard through Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analysis. The model was developed from hybrid models previously used individually for disaster-related analysis. The hybrid models experimented with were the Frequency Ratio-Index of Entropy (FR-IoE), (FR-IoE) with Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), (FR-IoE) with Logistic Regression (LR) and (FR-IoE) with Naïve Bayes (NB). The seismic vulnerability results computed from these hybrid models were validated using the areas under the curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC). It was found that the NB model showed the lowest reliability with the AUC values of 0.640 and 0.741 for its success rate and prediction rate, respectively. The AUC values for other models' success rates are 0.853, 0.856, and 0.869 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP, and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively, while their prediction rates are 0.863, 0.906, and 0.844 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively. A seismic hazard analysis was performed to complete the seismic risk model computation. The determination of seismic hazard was done by evaluating the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which was derived from Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). From the PGA computation, a non-linear regression model with an accuracy of R2 = 0.997 was obtained from constraint Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE, which was the best-fitted model compared to the other 5 GMPEs tested. Finally, the novel fitted GMPE for Ranau using the Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE were integrated with the seismic vulnerability obtained from the hybrid (FR-IoE) AHP model to derive the seismic risk information for Ranau, Sabah in the form of a seismic risk map. In the long run, the computed seismic risk map obtained from these findings can be implemented for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes and is useful the future earthquake disaster.
format Thesis
author Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
author_facet Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
author_sort Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
title Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_short Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_full Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_fullStr Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_full_unstemmed Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_sort application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
publishDate 2022
url http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf
http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/
http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:150998
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score 13.209306