Dynamic load forecasting for commercial power network
Load forecasting is an important component for power system energy management system. The electrical load is the power that an electric utility needs to supply in order to meet the demands of its customers. It is therefore very important to the utilities to have advance knowledge of their elec...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English English English |
| Published: |
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/1423/1/24p%20ABDUSALAM%20RAJB%20ALZALET.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/1423/2/ABDUSALAM%20RAJB%20ALZALET%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/1423/3/ABDUSALAM%20RAJB%20ALZALET%20WATERMARK.pdf http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/1423/ |
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| Summary: | Load forecasting is an important component for power system energy management
system. The electrical load is the power that an electric utility needs to supply in
order to meet the demands of its customers. It is therefore very important to the
utilities to have advance knowledge of their electrical load, so that they can ensure
the load is met and thus minimising any interruptions to their service. It also plays a
key role in reducing the generation cost, and also essential to the reliability of power
systems. The electric power demand in Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
(UTHM) has increased as the power system network is getting larger with more
consumption is to be expected. This loading trend is certain to continue in the near
future. The aim of this project is to forecast the medium term loading of UTHM
Linear regressions and polynomial based methods as well as artificial neural
networks (ANN) approach have been adapted in the load forecasting from 2006 to
2012. The results attained are validated with the real data obtained from the Tenaga
Nasional Berhad (TNB) which represents the monthly load electric consumption in
UTHM. By comparing the forecasted results with the real data, the most suitable
method has been proposed. When the approaches are compared according to their
highest prediction error, the highest error for linear regression and Polynomial
equation approaches are very high compared to the ANN approach. Generally the
ANN approach has produced better results. |
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