Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load d...
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my.utem.eprints.169922023-07-18T12:03:13Z http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/ Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia Miswan, Nor Hamizah Mohd Said, Rahaini Hussin, Nor Hafizah Hamzah, Khairum Ahmad, Emy Zairah T Technology (General) Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. Two methods are considered, which are Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting performance measure, the study concludes that ARIMA is more appropriate model. IJENS 2016-02 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/2/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf Miswan, Nor Hamizah and Mohd Said, Rahaini and Hussin, Nor Hafizah and Hamzah, Khairum and Ahmad, Emy Zairah (2016) Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. International Journal Of Electrical & Computer Sciences IJECS-IJENS, 16 (1). pp. 6-9. ISSN 2227-2739 http://ijens.org/Vol_16_I_01/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf |
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T Technology (General) Miswan, Nor Hamizah Mohd Said, Rahaini Hussin, Nor Hafizah Hamzah, Khairum Ahmad, Emy Zairah Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
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Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting
electricity load demand in Malaysia. Two methods are considered, which are Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting performance measure, the study concludes that ARIMA is more appropriate model. |
format |
Article |
author |
Miswan, Nor Hamizah Mohd Said, Rahaini Hussin, Nor Hafizah Hamzah, Khairum Ahmad, Emy Zairah |
author_facet |
Miswan, Nor Hamizah Mohd Said, Rahaini Hussin, Nor Hafizah Hamzah, Khairum Ahmad, Emy Zairah |
author_sort |
Miswan, Nor Hamizah |
title |
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
title_short |
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
title_full |
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
title_fullStr |
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia |
title_sort |
comparative performance of arima and des models in forecasting electricity load demand in malaysia |
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IJENS |
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2016 |
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http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/2/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/ http://ijens.org/Vol_16_I_01/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf |
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