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Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia

Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load d...

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Main Authors: Miswan, Nor Hamizah, Mohd Said, Rahaini, Hussin, Nor Hafizah, Hamzah, Khairum, Ahmad, Emy Zairah
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IJENS 2016
Subjects:
T Technology (General)
Online Access:http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/2/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf
http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/
http://ijens.org/Vol_16_I_01/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf
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spelling my.utem.eprints.169922023-07-18T12:03:13Z http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/ Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia Miswan, Nor Hamizah Mohd Said, Rahaini Hussin, Nor Hafizah Hamzah, Khairum Ahmad, Emy Zairah T Technology (General) Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. Two methods are considered, which are Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting performance measure, the study concludes that ARIMA is more appropriate model. IJENS 2016-02 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/2/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf Miswan, Nor Hamizah and Mohd Said, Rahaini and Hussin, Nor Hafizah and Hamzah, Khairum and Ahmad, Emy Zairah (2016) Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. International Journal Of Electrical & Computer Sciences IJECS-IJENS, 16 (1). pp. 6-9. ISSN 2227-2739 http://ijens.org/Vol_16_I_01/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf
institution Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka
building UTEM Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka
content_source UTEM Institutional Repository
url_provider http://eprints.utem.edu.my/
language English
topic T Technology (General)
spellingShingle T Technology (General)
Miswan, Nor Hamizah
Mohd Said, Rahaini
Hussin, Nor Hafizah
Hamzah, Khairum
Ahmad, Emy Zairah
Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
description Malaysia is a developing country which is having a high level of energy demand. Load demand forecasting is essential that is also in line with increasing demand of electricity. The purpose of the current study is to compare the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia. Two methods are considered, which are Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). Using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting performance measure, the study concludes that ARIMA is more appropriate model.
format Article
author Miswan, Nor Hamizah
Mohd Said, Rahaini
Hussin, Nor Hafizah
Hamzah, Khairum
Ahmad, Emy Zairah
author_facet Miswan, Nor Hamizah
Mohd Said, Rahaini
Hussin, Nor Hafizah
Hamzah, Khairum
Ahmad, Emy Zairah
author_sort Miswan, Nor Hamizah
title Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
title_short Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
title_full Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
title_fullStr Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Comparative performance of ARIMA and DES models in forecasting electricity load demand in Malaysia
title_sort comparative performance of arima and des models in forecasting electricity load demand in malaysia
publisher IJENS
publishDate 2016
url http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/2/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf
http://eprints.utem.edu.my/id/eprint/16992/
http://ijens.org/Vol_16_I_01/163601-4949-IJECS-IJENS.pdf
_version_ 1772816001575944192
score 13.18916

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