Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector
The study analysed the effects of de-subsidised fertiliser input, as an alternative policy, in the rice sector in Malaysia. Time series data (1980-2012) were collected and analysed through different stages of analyses. The fist stage of analysis involved time series econometric model, namely Auto Re...
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Universiti Putra Malaysia Press
2016
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Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/1/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20%282%29%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/ http://www.pertanika.upm.edu.my/Pertanika%20PAPERS/JSSH%20Vol.%2024%20(2)%20Jun.%202016/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20(2)%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf |
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my.upm.eprints.293782016-08-03T02:09:54Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/ Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector Umar, Haruna Suleiman Abdullah, Amin Mahir Shamsudin, Mad Nasir Mohamed, Zainal Abidin The study analysed the effects of de-subsidised fertiliser input, as an alternative policy, in the rice sector in Malaysia. Time series data (1980-2012) were collected and analysed through different stages of analyses. The fist stage of analysis involved time series econometric model, namely Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) which was used for coeffiients estimation. Estimated elasticities were subjected to and passed the relevant diagnostic tests. The estimated elasticities were then used for the second stage of analysis-that is scenario simulation (removal of fertiliser subsidy while retaining any other rice production subsidy and support) and forecast. Finally, the generated simulation results were further used in estimating societal welfare through the producer surplus change estimation technique. Results showed, on the average and by 2020, yields declined by 10%, national output contracted by 10% and net import increased by 19.1%. Producer welfare loss stood at RM839 million, revenue saved was RM183 million and the net loss or societal welfare loss was about RM655 million. Thus, the policy option should not be on the decision table of policy makers because of net lost to society in general. Universiti Putra Malaysia Press 2016 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/1/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20%282%29%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf Umar, Haruna Suleiman and Abdullah, Amin Mahir and Shamsudin, Mad Nasir and Mohamed, Zainal Abidin (2016) Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities, 24 (2). pp. 777-794. ISSN 0128-7702; ESSN: 2231-8534 http://www.pertanika.upm.edu.my/Pertanika%20PAPERS/JSSH%20Vol.%2024%20(2)%20Jun.%202016/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20(2)%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf |
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The study analysed the effects of de-subsidised fertiliser input, as an alternative policy, in the rice sector in Malaysia. Time series data (1980-2012) were collected and analysed through different stages of analyses. The fist stage of analysis involved time series econometric model, namely Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) which was used for coeffiients estimation. Estimated elasticities were subjected to and passed the relevant diagnostic tests. The estimated elasticities were then used for the second stage of analysis-that is scenario simulation (removal of fertiliser subsidy while retaining any other rice production subsidy and support) and forecast. Finally, the generated simulation results were further used in estimating societal welfare through the producer surplus change estimation technique. Results showed, on the average and by 2020, yields declined by 10%, national output contracted by 10% and net import increased by 19.1%. Producer welfare loss stood at RM839 million, revenue saved was RM183 million and the net loss or societal welfare loss was about RM655 million. Thus, the policy option should not be on the decision table of policy makers because of net lost to society in general. |
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Article |
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Umar, Haruna Suleiman Abdullah, Amin Mahir Shamsudin, Mad Nasir Mohamed, Zainal Abidin |
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Umar, Haruna Suleiman Abdullah, Amin Mahir Shamsudin, Mad Nasir Mohamed, Zainal Abidin Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
author_facet |
Umar, Haruna Suleiman Abdullah, Amin Mahir Shamsudin, Mad Nasir Mohamed, Zainal Abidin |
author_sort |
Umar, Haruna Suleiman |
title |
Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
title_short |
Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
title_full |
Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
title_fullStr |
Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in Malaysia's rice sector |
title_sort |
implication of fertiliser subsidy withdrawal on societal welfare, rice output and imports in malaysia's rice sector |
publisher |
Universiti Putra Malaysia Press |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/1/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20%282%29%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/29378/ http://www.pertanika.upm.edu.my/Pertanika%20PAPERS/JSSH%20Vol.%2024%20(2)%20Jun.%202016/14%20JSSH%20Vol%2024%20(2)%20Jun%202016_pg777-794.pdf |
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