Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms

Decision trees; Eutrophication; Forecasting; Learning systems; Neural networks; Phosphate fertilizers; Predictive analytics; Reservoirs (water); Stochastic systems; Support vector machines; Water pollution; Water quality; Water supply; Conventional modeling; Cross validation; Developed model; Non-po...

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Main Authors: Latif S.D., Birima A.H., Ahmed A.N., Hatem D.M., Al-Ansari N., Fai C.M., El-Shafie A.
Other Authors: 57216081524
Format: Article
Published: Ain Shams University 2023
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spelling my.uniten.dspace-273142023-05-29T17:42:34Z Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms Latif S.D. Birima A.H. Ahmed A.N. Hatem D.M. Al-Ansari N. Fai C.M. El-Shafie A. 57216081524 23466519000 57214837520 57226012037 51664437800 57214146115 16068189400 Decision trees; Eutrophication; Forecasting; Learning systems; Neural networks; Phosphate fertilizers; Predictive analytics; Reservoirs (water); Stochastic systems; Support vector machines; Water pollution; Water quality; Water supply; Conventional modeling; Cross validation; Developed model; Non-point source pollution; Prediction model; Primary sources; Statistical indices; Water quality parameters; Learning algorithms Phosphate (PO4) is a major component of most fertilizers, and when erosion and runoff occur, large amounts of it enter the water bodies, causing several problems such as eutrophication. Feitsui reservoir, the primary source of water supply to Taipei, reported half of the reservoir's pollutants from nonpoint-source pollution. The value of the PO4 in the water body fluctuates in highly nonlinear and stochastic patterns. However, conventional modeling techniques are no longer sufficiently effective in predicting accurately such stochastic patterns in the concentrations of PO4 in water. Therefore, this study proposes different machine learning algorithms: the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and boosted trees (BT) to predict the concentration of PO4. Monthly measured data between 1986 and 2014 were used to train and test the accuracy of these models. The performances of these models were examined using different statistical indices. Hyperparameters optimization such as cross-validation was performed to enhance the precision of the models. Five water quality parameters were used as input to the proposed models. Different input combinations were explored to optimize the precision. The findings revealed that ANN outperformed the other three models to capture the changes in the concentrations of PO4 with high precision where RMSE is equal to 1.199, MAE is equal to 0.858, and R2 is equal to 0.979, MSE is equal to 1.439, and finally, CC is equal to 0.9909. The developed model could be used as a reliable means for managing eutrophication problems. � 2021 THE AUTHORS Final 2023-05-29T09:42:33Z 2023-05-29T09:42:33Z 2022 Article 10.1016/j.asej.2021.06.009 2-s2.0-85110194763 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85110194763&doi=10.1016%2fj.asej.2021.06.009&partnerID=40&md5=ea07a43edb74e5a5a8197a1a0aeafcd6 https://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/27314 13 1 101523 All Open Access, Gold, Green Ain Shams University Scopus
institution Universiti Tenaga Nasional
building UNITEN Library
collection Institutional Repository
continent Asia
country Malaysia
content_provider Universiti Tenaga Nasional
content_source UNITEN Institutional Repository
url_provider http://dspace.uniten.edu.my/
description Decision trees; Eutrophication; Forecasting; Learning systems; Neural networks; Phosphate fertilizers; Predictive analytics; Reservoirs (water); Stochastic systems; Support vector machines; Water pollution; Water quality; Water supply; Conventional modeling; Cross validation; Developed model; Non-point source pollution; Prediction model; Primary sources; Statistical indices; Water quality parameters; Learning algorithms
author2 57216081524
author_facet 57216081524
Latif S.D.
Birima A.H.
Ahmed A.N.
Hatem D.M.
Al-Ansari N.
Fai C.M.
El-Shafie A.
format Article
author Latif S.D.
Birima A.H.
Ahmed A.N.
Hatem D.M.
Al-Ansari N.
Fai C.M.
El-Shafie A.
spellingShingle Latif S.D.
Birima A.H.
Ahmed A.N.
Hatem D.M.
Al-Ansari N.
Fai C.M.
El-Shafie A.
Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
author_sort Latif S.D.
title Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
title_short Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
title_full Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
title_fullStr Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
title_full_unstemmed Development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
title_sort development of prediction model for phosphate in reservoir water system based machine learning algorithms
publisher Ain Shams University
publishDate 2023
_version_ 1806426045218291712
score 13.211869