Piecewise linear modelling and change-point analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia
In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control Order (MCO). We study the direct e...
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Main Authors: | , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
IOP Publishing Ltd
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/36034/1/outbreak1.pdf http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/36034/ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1988/1/012105 |
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Summary: | In Malaysia, COVID-19 were first detected as imported cases on 25 January and as
local infection on 4 February 2020. A surge of positive cases ensued by March 2020 which led
to a series of countrywide containment and mitigation measures known as Movement Control
Order (MCO). We study the direct effects of MCO on the course of epidemic by analyzing the
cumulative and daily infection cases of COVID-19 up to 31 December 2020 in Malaysia and its
states using piecewise linear regression and segment neighborhoods algorithm of change-point
analysis, respectively. Through piecewise regression on nationwide cases, MCO were likely to
almost flatten the epidemic curve in just one month after it was first initiated. While for
stateswise cases, the average length of series of concave downward is six months before it turn
to concave upward, indicating the period of which deceleration of new cases can be expected.
However, the starting of this wave of COVID-19 can be relatively vary for three months in
different states and federal territories. Together with change-point analysis on daily cases, the
statewise epidemic phases could be subdivided into two to four regimes, whereby the majority
of phase transitions fall in April and last quarter of 2020. Overall, the statistical modelling shows
that the immediate effect of MCO appears to be effective. |
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