Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia
1st Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM-I) 2010 organized by Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) and co-organized by Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) & Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), 2nd - 3rd June 2010 at Eastern & Oriental Hotel, Penang.
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Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP)
2010
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my.unimap-103272010-11-26T09:22:14Z Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia Faridah, Basaruddin Mahendran, Shitan Rosnah, Mohd Yusoff Izham, Zainal Abidin Norman, Mariun Regional load forecasting ARIMA model Meteorological stations Historical data Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM) 1st Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM-I) 2010 organized by Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) and co-organized by Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) & Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), 2nd - 3rd June 2010 at Eastern & Oriental Hotel, Penang. Short term regional load forecasting plays an important role in ensuring adequate load supply, preventing shortage and excessive storage of electricity that in turn would add cost to the utility company. Demographic and weather factors do contribute toward the load consumption at the different areas under a particular demographic region. Temperature, the most outstanding weather element has been shown to have great effect on load forecasting. In this study, time series model, ARIMA is applied on the historical load data at two selected meteorological stations, Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu. The selection of the appropriate model for the two data sets were based on the smallest value of AICC statistic. The AICC for Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu stations are 849.253 and 781.335 respectively. The forecasting errors for prediction of the next three hours peak load at the two stations are summarized in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The RMSE for Kuantan and Terengganu stations are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively while MAPE are 4.7% and 7.05% respectively. The correlation between temperature and peak load consumption at the chosen stations are analyzed by using simple regression. The results show that there is a positive correlation between peak load and temperature. 2010-11-26T09:22:14Z 2010-11-26T09:22:14Z 2010-06-02 Working Paper Vol.4(5), p.381-385 http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/10327 en Proceedings of the 1st Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM-I) 2010 Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) Institut Matematik Kejuruteraan |
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Universiti Malaysia Perlis |
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Asia |
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Malaysia |
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Universiti Malaysia Perlis |
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| language |
English |
| topic |
Regional load forecasting ARIMA model Meteorological stations Historical data Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM) |
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Regional load forecasting ARIMA model Meteorological stations Historical data Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM) Faridah, Basaruddin Mahendran, Shitan Rosnah, Mohd Yusoff Izham, Zainal Abidin Norman, Mariun Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| description |
1st Regional Conference on Applied and Engineering Mathematics (RCAEM-I) 2010 organized by Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) and co-organized by Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) & Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), 2nd - 3rd June 2010 at Eastern & Oriental Hotel, Penang. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Faridah, Basaruddin Mahendran, Shitan Rosnah, Mohd Yusoff Izham, Zainal Abidin Norman, Mariun |
| author_facet |
Faridah, Basaruddin Mahendran, Shitan Rosnah, Mohd Yusoff Izham, Zainal Abidin Norman, Mariun |
| author_sort |
Faridah, Basaruddin |
| title |
Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| title_short |
Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| title_full |
Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| title_fullStr |
Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Load forecasting at Kuantan and Kuala Terengganu in Malaysia |
| title_sort |
load forecasting at kuantan and kuala terengganu in malaysia |
| publisher |
Universiti Malaysia Perlis (UniMAP) |
| publishDate |
2010 |
| url |
http://dspace.unimap.edu.my/xmlui/handle/123456789/10327 |
| _version_ |
1643789811398475776 |
| score |
13.214268 |