Modelling the factors affecting the export demand for Malaysia palm oil

• Main Author: Nur Aliyah Jazuli Wilaksono
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English; English
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: HD9000-9495 Agricultural industries
• Online Access: https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42269/1/24%20PAGES.pdf; https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42269/2/FULLTEXT.pdf; https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42269/

The main purpose of this thesis is to model the export demand on the Malaysia's palm oil based on the existing market variables regarding palm oil. The data collected were from the 2008 until 2018 mainly from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) database. Price of palm oil (CPO price), production of palm oil, price of oils and fats substitutes, food and non-food production containing palm oil as raw materials, number of population, total area planted of palm oil, number of palm oil mills, number of refinery plant, number of oleochemical plant, number of biodiesel plant, import demand for palm oil including the exchange rate and GDP of palm oil in countries are selected as the independent factors of the study. Export demand is measured through the data obtained on the amount of palm oil exported measured in tonnes using monthly timeframe. Regression using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) are used to determine the relationship between the studied factors and the palm oil export demand. Result obtained states that production of palm oil, production of palm oil derivatives such as RBD palm olein and PFAD and the price of palm substitutes which is fish oil affects the Malaysian palm oil export demand significantly. The goodness of fit tests and root mean square error (RMSE) have been carried out to test the validity of the best models for both OLS and ARIMAX respectively and the outcome affirms the best model is in an acceptable range.