Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach
Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically...
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2012
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Online Access: | http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://www.ijesd.org/papers/241-B063.pdf |
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my.ump.umpir.68082016-05-05T07:26:19Z http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically managing the supply system A simulation based on system dynamics methodology is developed for demand forecasting. The variables used are population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity demand. The forecasting horizon of the model is 11 years from 2011 to 2022. Malaysia is used as a case study. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 151.05 terawatt-hour of electric energy in year 2022. It is found that that by using simulation, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. IACSIT Press 2012-08 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf application/pdf en http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada and Razman, Mat Tahar (2012) Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 3 (4). pp. 328-333. ISSN 2010-0264 http://www.ijesd.org/papers/241-B063.pdf |
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TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System Dynamics Approach |
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Electricity has become an important source of energy in human society. The enormous use of electricity necessitates a mechanism to predict the future demand. Forecasting models provide that mechanism. They facilitate decision makers in keeping a balance between supply and demand, thus strategically managing the supply system A simulation based on system dynamics methodology is developed for demand forecasting. The variables used are population and per capita consumption of electricity to forecast electricity
demand. The forecasting horizon of the model is 11 years from 2011 to 2022. Malaysia is used as a case study. The simulation model estimates that at the current rate of consumption and population growth there will be a need of 151.05 terawatt-hour of electric energy in year 2022. It is found that that by using simulation, a fairly accurate forecast can be obtained. |
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Article |
author |
Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar |
author_facet |
Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada Razman, Mat Tahar |
author_sort |
Salman Ahmad, Akhwanzada |
title |
Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System
Dynamics Approach |
title_short |
Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System
Dynamics Approach |
title_full |
Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System
Dynamics Approach |
title_fullStr |
Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System
Dynamics Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strategic Forecasting of Electricity Demand Using System
Dynamics Approach |
title_sort |
strategic forecasting of electricity demand using system
dynamics approach |
publisher |
IACSIT Press |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/1/Strategic_forecasting_of_electricity_demand_using_system_dynamics_approach.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/4/ftech-2012-razman-strategic%20forecasting%20of%20electricity%20demand%20using%20system.pdf http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/6808/ http://www.ijesd.org/papers/241-B063.pdf |
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