A hybrid prediction model for short-term load forecasting in power systems

• Main Authors: Zuriani, Mustaffa, Mohd Herwan, Sulaiman
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: ECTI Association 2024
• Subjects: TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
• Online Access: http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/44084/1/A%20hybrid%20prediction%20model%20for%20short-term.pdf; http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/44084/; https://doi.org/10.37936/ecti-cit.2024184.257667; https://doi.org/10.37936/ecti-cit.2024184.257667

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in effective power system management by assisting power dispatch centers in developing generation plans and ensuring smooth system operation. This study introduces a novel hybrid prediction model called iSSA-LSSVM to tackle the STLF challenge. By integrating the Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) with Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM), the iSSA-LSSVM model significantly improves LSSVM's prediction accuracy. One of the key contributions is the model's ability to autonomously ne-tune LSSVM hyperparameters, eliminating the need for manual adjustments and optimizing performance. Modifying the SSA within iSSA-LSSVM enhances the original algorithm's exploration and exploitation capabilities, ensuring better search efficiency and precision. Using a dataset with four independent variables as input and electrical power output as the target variable, the model demonstrates superior predictive performance. Comparative analysis with three other models shows that iSSA-LSSVM achieves a lower Mean Square Error (MSE) and faster convergence. This improvement in accuracy and efficiency enhances STLF, allowing power dispatch centers to develop more precise generation plans and ensure more reliable power system operation.