Projection the future changes of rainfall and temperature at Pahang state

• Main Author: Nur Hanani Farhah, Mohd Hilmi
• Format: Undergraduates Project Papers
• Language: English
• Published: 2016
• Subjects: TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
• Online Access: http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/16140/1/Projection%20the%20future%20changes%20of%20rainfall%20and%20temperature%20at%20Pahang%20state-CD%2010230.pdf; http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/16140/

This paper assesses the projection of future changes that focus on climatic trend at Pahang state. To analyse this changes of climate, one of the models are used to stimulate this projection which is using statistical downscaling model (SDSM). In this study, the SDSM has been measured using predictor derived from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). About 5 predictors were selected for 12 rainfall stations and 1 temperature station based on the correlation value between predictors-predictant relationships Moreover, statistical downscaling model are used to produce the possible projection values of local meteorological variable such as temperature and rainfall at the location already selected which is at Pahang state. The purpose of this study is to generate the future climate trend in term of temperature, rainfall and wet and dry length in the future year 2010 to 2099. This study also wants to estimate the percentage of climatic changes between historical and upcoming at future year. Using SDSM model, the result will be more performed better than other model. The calibrated and validated results show the SDSM produce good simulated result with average error only 0.3% for temperature and 10% for rainfall.