The application of the COVID-19 global economic impact simulator in China

• Main Authors: Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz, Koutronas, Evangelos
• Format: Article
• Published: Faculty of Economics and Administration 2022
• Subjects: H Social Sciences (General)
• Online Access: http://eprints.um.edu.my/43612/

This paper establishes conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events, such as the case of Covid-19. The Covid-19 Global Economic Impact Simulator attempts to identify the Covid-19 transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators-(i) the Covid-19 contagious spread intensity rate (S.I.), (ii) the treatment level for Covid-19 infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of Covid-19 causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the Covid-19 contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the Covid-19 epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). Findings show that Covid-19 exhibits parallel spatial and temporal conditions with the related R.N.A. virus family but carries distinct infection signatures and magnitude of virus replication. Covid-19 ferocity can trigger a severe public health emergency in China with significant impacts on the domestic and world economies. © 2022, Faculty of Economics and Administration. All rights reserved.