Modelling transmission dynamics of covid-19 during Pre-vaccination period in Malaysia: a predictive guiseird model using streamlit

• Main Authors: Zulkarnain, Norsyahidah, Abdul Hadi, Muhammad Salihi, Mohammad, Nurul Farahain, Shogar, Ibrahim
• Format: Conference or Workshop Item
• Language: English
• Published: UKM 2023
• Subjects: QA276 Mathematical Statistics
• Online Access: http://irep.iium.edu.my/104929/5/104929_Modelling%20transmission%20dynamics%20of%20covid-19%20during%20Pre-vaccination.pdf; http://irep.iium.edu.my/104929/

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a major health threat worldwide pandemic, first identified in Malaysia on 25 January 2020. This outbreak can be represented in the mathematical expressions of a non-linear system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). With the lack of a predictive SEIRD model in terms of Graphical Users Interface (GUI) in Malaysia, this paper aims to model the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia during the pre-vaccination period using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) model with time-varying parameters, then develop a GUI-SEIRD predictive model using Streamlit Python library. This GUI-SEIRD predictive model considers different values of the proportion of the quarantine-abiding population (r) and three different decisions of MCO lifted date to forecast the number of active cases (I) on 15 October 2020 that gives insightful information to government agencies. The mathematical model is solved using Scipy odeint function, which uses Livermore Solver for Ordinary Differential Equations with an Automatic method switching (LSODA) algorithm. The time-varying coefficients of SEIRD model that best fit the real data of COVID-19 cases are obtained using the Nelder-Mead optimization algorithm. This an extended SIRD model with exposed (E) compartment becoming SEIRD, leads to a robust model. It adequately fitted two datasets of Malaysian COVID-19 indicated by the slightest average values of root mean square error (RMSE) as compared to other existing models. The results highlight that the larger the values of the proportion of the quarantine-abiding population (r) and the later the date of the lifted MCO, the faster Malaysia reaches disease free equilibrium.