AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC FOR A SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST OF MALAYSIA LOAD DEMAND

• Main Author: MOHAMED HASSAN, MOHD ADIKA
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Universiti Teknologi Petronas 2005
• Subjects: TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
• Online Access: http://utpedia.utp.edu.my/9001/1/2005%20-%20An%20Application%20of%20Fuzzy%20Logic%20for%20a%20Short-Term%20Load%20Forecast%20of%20Malaysia%20Load%20Demand.pdf; http://utpedia.utp.edu.my/9001/

This project basically analyzes the hourly load profile in Malaysia. Studies on load pattern and trending apart the affecting factors on the electrical load demand have been performed, and application of fuzzy logic that being used from fuzzytech software to forecast the electrical load demand for 1 hour ahead and 19 hours ahead. Chapter 1 basically describes some introduction of this project. Set of objectives is stated in order to ensure the project is done within the scope and time frame. The current situation is outlined as the problem statement which leads to relevancy apart its application in the practical world. In order to ensure high quality of work being performed, some continuous research should be done. Apart of that, continuous study on load profile analysis and economical power analysis help much in this project. Basic knowledge of fuzzy logic in fuzzytech software also is one of the requirements while doing this project. Due to this condition, some of elementary information in doing this project being outlined in chapter 2 of this report. Meanwhile Chapter 3 describes the approach thathasbe done while doing this project. Some methods of designation of the system and outcome of the load profile studies is explained in this chapter. As the project performed, the results and the outcomes of the system is presented in chapter 4. Apart of the result, some analysis such as error calculation and result analysis is shown here. Chapter 5 basically presents the importance and findings from this project. Some short summary of the project being outlined and some conclusion of the project. In Chapter 6, some recommendation to improve the project is discussed. Digesting the report as a whole, it is basically explained the 19 hours and 17 hours load forecasting system that using fuzzy logic technique in fuzzytech software as an approach. With accuracy ofthe system around 97% - 98%, the system is reliable to be applied in practical world. Apart of that, this report also describes the capability ofthe system to forecast electrical loaddemand for 1monthahead.